Market Summary
US Equities Advance as Fed Hike Bets Ease: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced during yesterday’s session as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month eased, lifting investor sentiment. The gains followed comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said he would support keeping rates steady if price pressures continued to ease. Swaps now imply around a 50% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, down from around 70% earlier this week. Attention now turns to today’s US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data, which could provide further guidance on the Fed’s policy path. Nasdaq 100 futures are up around 0.35% this morning, pointing to a firmer start to European and US trading.
Yen Strengthens as BOJ Hike Bets Rise: The yen strengthened by around 2% on Thursday, reversing a month of gradual weakness as traders increased their bets on Bank of Japan rate hikes and remained alert to the possibility of official intervention to support the currency. The yen has since pared some of its gains, trading at around 156.30 per dollar after strengthening to as high as 155.30 during the previous session. The sharp move highlights growing expectations for a shift in Japanese monetary policy and continued sensitivity to potential currency intervention.
Oil Steadies as US-Iran Tensions Support Prices: Brent crude is holding at around $95.55 a barrel this morning and is on track for its largest weekly gain since July. Renewed US-Iran hostilities have increased concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping a significant geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. The stability in crude this morning follows a strong weekly rally and leaves energy markets highly sensitive to further developments in the region.
Treasury Yields Hold Steady Ahead of Payrolls: The US 10-year Treasury yield is broadly unchanged at around 4.77%, with investors awaiting today’s labour market data for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Softer inflation expectations and reduced rate-hike bets have supported risk sentiment, but a stronger-than-expected employment report could challenge the recent repricing of Fed policy.
Gold Holds Steady: XAU/USD rose 2.09% during yesterday’s session before opening broadly flat this morning, down around 0.11% at approximately $4,468 an ounce. Gold continues to benefit from reduced expectations for near-term Fed tightening, while heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a more cautious outlook for monetary policy remain supportive of demand for the safe-haven asset.
Economic Calendar
- US Non-Farm Payrolls
- US Unemployment Rate
- Canada Unemployment Rate
Key Market Moves Today
- S&P 500 Futures: +0.09% (7,761.0)
- US 10-Year Yield: +0.21 bps (4.77%)
- Brent Crude: -0.02% ($95.55)
- Bitcoin: -0.61% ($80,972)
- Spot Gold: -0.11% ($4,468.20)
**For professional investors only** Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this blog is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Some of this information may have been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of iSAM Securities or its directors or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this blog, and no responsibility or liability is accepted for any such information. As a result, any person acting on any information does so entirely at their own risk. iSAM Securities will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
