Market Commentary: Friday 11th July

It has been a week of small releases regarding what’s coming on the tariff front on August 1st, and the S&P 500 continues to tread water after briefly setting new all-time highs yesterday. Sentiment remains in “wait and see” mode, and the information released so far has not triggered the panic seen in April. Canada is the latest nation to face disappointment, with its levy set to increase from 25% to 35%, while blanket tariff levels of 15% or 20% for all (above the current 10%) are also being discussed. The CAD came under pressure as a result, with USD/CAD testing 1.37. JPY is also weakening ahead of looming increased levies, with USD/JPY rallying 1.7% this week and testing toward 147.

The real winners this week are in crypto. Bitcoin ($118,410) is setting all-time highs after over a billion dollars in short bets were wiped out yesterday. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second-highest daily inflow on record, and there is increasing demand for call options at $140,000 and $150,000 for expiries around September and December.

WTI also dipped $1 a barrel yesterday evening, toward $67, amid concerns about a supply hike for August by OPEC+ and a surprise increase in US crude inventories.

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