Market Commentary with Chris Twort: 10th - 14th November

Weekly Recap: 10th - 14th

Global Market Overview:

Global equities traded choppily this week as optimism over the U.S. government reopening lifted early sentiment before rate uncertainty and stretched tech valuations weighed on risk appetite. After the longest shutdown in U.S. history (43 days), markets welcomed clarity on delayed data and fiscal operations, though volatility persisted across equities, commodities, and crypto.

Japan:

The yen weakened early in the week before stabilising near ¥155 per USD as intervention concerns lingered. Japanese equities mirrored global volatility — the Nikkei gained midweek as dip-buyers returned following two sessions of heavy losses but ended the week softer amid renewed pressure on technology and semiconductor names.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s intervention warnings steadied FX sentiment, while the Bank of Japan maintained its accommodative stance, with investors watching for signs of further policy recalibration in December.

U.S. & China:

Optimism over a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown lifted equities and commodities early in the week, with S&P 500 futures up 0.8% on Monday. However, sentiment turned after reports that China may exclude U.S.-linked firms from its rare earth export system, rekindling trade tensions.
The reopening of government operations sets the stage for a wave of delayed economic data — particularly on inflation and employment — expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
By midweek, softer U.S. jobs data strengthened expectations for a December rate cut, while Fed officials pushed back, calling for patience as inflation risks persist. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 recorded modest weekly losses after heavy rotation away from AI-driven tech stocks.

Europe:

European markets traded cautiously but gained modestly early in the week on easing shutdown fears. The Bank of England held rates at 4%, citing persistent inflation pressures, while stronger-than-expected Australian jobs data and higher Norwegian yields reinforced global central bank caution.
The pound weakened late in the week after reports that the UK government may drop income tax hike plans in its upcoming budget, adding fiscal uncertainty. Across the continent, equities softened alongside Wall Street as investors pared back risk exposure.

Markets & Commodities:

Commodities rallied early in the week as risk appetite improved, before fading as the focus turned to Fed policy.

• Gold rose above $4,070/oz Monday before stabilising near $4,200, supported by renewed haven flows.

• Oil rebounded 1.3% on Friday to around $59.50/bbl after OPEC+ confirmed it would pause supply increases in early 2026.

• Bitcoin swung sharply, rising above $106,000 midweek before sinking below $97,000 by Friday, marking a 20% pullback since early October.
  Volatility in semiconductors — led by sharp moves in Samsung, TSMC, and Nvidia-linked sentiment — highlighted how stretched AI valuations remain after months of strong inflows.

Data & Earnings:

With the U.S. shutdown resolved, attention shifts to the backlog of economic data releases due in the coming days.

• ADP employment data signalled slowing job growth, reinforcing expectations for a more dovish Fed into year-end.

• Key corporate earnings included BP, AMD, Shopify, McDonald’s, Siemens, Qualcomm, BMW, and Tesla — the latter gaining after shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan.
  Investors now await Nvidia’s results next week as a potential catalyst for broader tech sentiment.

Chris’ Comments

No data, no direction - is sentiment is steering the markets?

With the U.S. government shutdown lasting 43 days — the longest in history — now over, a crucial point of discussion arises: how will markets behave without data? Everyone in the trading community is eagerly awaiting the resumption of data releases, especially since we are often reminded that these markets are “data driven.” However, the White House has announced that October CPI and jobs data likely won’t be released, leaving us all on tenterhooks.

During the 43-day shutdown, the U.S. government borrowed an astonishing $14.4 billion per day. The White House has been quick to blame the Democrats, highlighting the political undertones of this fiscal situation. With the debt burden increasing, market focus will inevitably shift from stocks to debt markets.

If the anticipated data is not released and there is a growing sense that the U.S. economy — particularly the job market — is slowing, then provided inflation remains under control, we could see pressure on yields moving lower. In the absence of concrete data, sentiment becomes the driving force — and right now, that sentiment is far from bullish.

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