Market Commentary: Friday 20th February

Oil climbed to a six-month high as escalating tensions between the US and Iran dampened investor risk appetite.

Brent crude rose 0.7% to $72.19 a barrel, bringing its weekly gain to more than 6%, after President Donald Trump said Iran had up to 15 days to reach a nuclear deal while the US expanded its military presence in the Middle East.

The buildup — including aircraft carriers and fighter jets — has raised concerns about potential conflict in a region responsible for roughly a third of global oil supply.

In response, investors shifted toward haven assets: Treasuries held gains, gold hovered near $5,000 an ounce, and the dollar strengthened. Analysts said markets remain cautious, viewing Trump’s stance partly as a negotiating tactic but remaining wary of further escalation.

US stock futures slipped 0.3%, while European futures rose 0.4%, and Asian shares pared earlier losses, with South Korea’s market outperforming. The dollar is heading for its strongest week in four months, supported by reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets.

As for today’s data releases, we have PMIs across Europe and the US, US Advance GDP and Core PCE, and US New Home Sales.

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