Market Commentary: Friday 20th June

This week’s central bank meetings are now behind us, and there are no real changes to expectations, with both the UK and US still forecast to cut rates twice more this year. The UK’s first cut could come as soon as the next meeting in August, so upcoming data and any meaningful changes in oil prices will be watched closely. The Fed isn’t expected to cut until October. The next major central bank meetings are in Australia and New Zealand at the start of next month, where cuts for both are currently seen as very likely.

Elsewhere, markets are sluggish. US involvement in the Middle East is being watched closely, and the same risk premium seen over the past few days remains priced in, with equities slightly off recent highs and WTI trading at $75. Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, his spokeswoman said yesterday, allowing time for potential negotiation.

Bitcoin is trading at $104,499, Ether at $2,514, S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%, and XAUUSD is trading at $3,344 an ounce.

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