Market Commentary: Friday 2nd October

French bonds fell as the government’s deficit-reduction plans increased political and fiscal concerns across European markets. Meanwhile, oil held above $102 and investors awaited today’s US payrolls report for clues on the outlook for further Fed tightening.

 

 

Market Summary

French Bonds Fall on Budget Concerns: France’s government unveiled plans to control the rising budget deficit through controversial tax increases and spending cuts, risking further pressure on public support ahead of next year’s presidential election. Heightened political and fiscal uncertainty caused French government bonds to underperform, with 10-year OAT yields rising by seven basis points. Yields also moved higher across other European markets as the euro-area risk premium increased.

Global Bonds Rally Ahead of US Payrolls: Treasuries rallied during Thursday’s session, while sovereign bonds in Japan, Australia and New Zealand also advanced during Asian trading. Attention now turns to today’s US non-farm payrolls report. Following strong private payroll figures earlier this week, investors will be assessing whether the labour market remains resilient enough to support further policy tightening.

Oil Holds Above $102 as Middle East Risks Persist: Brent crude remained above $102 a barrel, maintaining concerns about energy-driven inflation and raising the stakes for today’s employment data. Attention also remains on the Middle East as the US deploys additional warships to the region and President Trump reportedly considers resuming military strikes.

Economic Calendar

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls
  • US Unemployment Rate

Key Market Moves Today

  • S&P 500 Futures: +0.23% (7,741)
  • Crude Oil: -1.15% ($91.79)
  • Spot Gold: +0.08% ($4,180)

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