Market Commentary: Monday 23rd February

The dollar and US equity futures weakened as renewed ambiguity around trade policy unsettled sentiment toward US assets. S&P 500 futures fell 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.8%, while European futures also pointed lower.

 

 

The dollar and US equity futures weakened as renewed ambiguity around trade policy unsettled sentiment toward US assets. S&P 500 futures fell 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.8%, while European futures also pointed lower. The move follows President Trump’s decision to impose a new 10% global levy hours after the Supreme Court struck down his reciprocal tariffs, with the rate later raised to 15%, reintroducing trade uncertainty into markets.

The renewed tariff push is prompting investors to price a higher risk premium into US assets, particularly the dollar and equities. While Asian markets initially rallied on hopes the court ruling would ease pressure on China and India, the broader focus has shifted back to policy unpredictability and its implications for growth and Fed policy. Investors are now assessing whether the administration’s alternative trade tools could prolong volatility across global markets.

In rates, Treasury futures firmed while the dollar index slipped 0.2%. Gold and silver gained as safe-haven demand picked up, while oil fell as traders weighed the prospects of a US–Iran nuclear deal. Bitcoin tumbled sharply before stabilising, reflecting broader risk sensitivity. Attention now turns to US factory orders data and Fed commentary for further signals on the economic outlook.

• S&P 500 futures −0.7%
• Nasdaq 100 futures −0.8%
• US 10-year yield ~4.08%
• Bitcoin −2.7% to $65,738
• Gold +0.8% to $5,147
• WTI −1.2% to $65.66

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