Market Commentary: Monday 24th March

As we approach the end of Q1 2025, the main data points are sentiment-based. Over the course of this week, we have Purchasing Managers' Indices today and the German IFO tomorrow. A few more speeches from central bankers are expected now that the blackout window is over, and domestically we have CPI and PPI data on Wednesday. On Thursday, we get US GDP and trade data, and on Friday, US CPI.

Overnight, the preliminary releases for March PMIs came from Australia, Japan, and India. Broadly speaking, Japan was soft, Australia was firmer, and India was broadly in line.

Over the weekend, the press focused on Trump’s “Liberation Day” on 2nd April. The tariffs will be more targeted than had previously been feared. Bloomberg suggested that while Trump will still announce “widespread reciprocal tariffs,” he is “set to exclude some” nations or blocs. He is seen stopping short of the blanket global targets he has previously threatened.

In Canada, Mark Carney has announced the Canadian election for 28th April and has made it clear that Carney’s campaign will focus on a strong approach to Trump.

Market-wise, Bitcoin rose 2.2% to $86,998.14, Ether rose 3.7% to $2,066.48, the yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points, spot gold was little changed at $3,025 per ounce, and West Texas Intermediate crude opens at $68.50 per barrel.

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