"Mind the Gap" is a reference to both oil and gold this morning. Oil fell as Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend avoided the OPEC member’s oil facilities, with West Texas Intermediate declining 5% to $68.15. XAUUSD also gapped down $10 on the open. Another notable mover was USD/JPY, as the yen dropped to its weakest level in about three months; Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s gamble to call a snap election backfired, and USD/JPY opens at 153.40.
As for the week ahead, we have Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Jobs growth is expected to have slowed to 111,000 in October, reflecting the impact of strikes at Boeing and weather-related disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Ahead of that, Tuesday's JOLTS data for September and Thursday’s initial jobless claims will be closely watched for any signs of softening in the labor market. Wednesday brings the first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, and Thursday will see U.S. personal income data. There are fewer Fed speeches this week as officials will be in a communications blackout ahead of the November 7 policy meeting.
Elsewhere, five of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks report in the coming week. Google parent Alphabet is due to report on Tuesday, followed by Microsoft and Facebook parent Meta Platforms on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. My latest favourite statistic is that they jointly account for 23% of the S&P 500. In the background, the U.S. election is gaining momentum; whether it’s a reference to Arnold Palmer or the lack of reference to any policy, don’t forget the November 5 U.S. presidential election and then the Fed’s next monetary policy decision on November 7—two significant events.
Domestically, the UK budget is set to take place at 12:30 p.m. on Wednesday, October 30. As for today, it's mainly about researching the rest of the week, with the highlight being Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech."
