Market Commentary: Monday 29th September

US and European equity futures firmed after Friday’s in-line inflation print eased nerves, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq contracts up 0.3%. Asian shares gained 0.5% as Chinese equities jumped 2% on stronger industrial profits. Oil fell on OPEC+ oversupply concerns, gold hit a fresh record above $3,800, and Treasuries rallied as the dollar slipped into month-end.

Focus now turns to Washington, where Trump meets congressional leaders today with federal funding set to expire tomorrow. A shutdown would delay key economic data, including payrolls, complicating the Fed’s next steps. Markets still price a strong chance of a September cut after last week’s steady PCE print.

China sentiment improved with August industrial profits up 20% y/y, the first rise in four months, supporting hopes policy measures are gaining traction ahead of Golden Week. Investors remain cautious, but the data offered a timely confidence boost for earnings.

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