Market Commentary: Monday 31st March

A busy week is likely ahead, with the vastly anticipated Liberation Day on Wednesday, when Trump is set to unleash a wave of reciprocal tariffs—alongside several important data releases.

A lot of de-risking has already been executed by money managers, as global equities fell for a fourth consecutive day and S&P futures are pointing to a lower open (-0.7%). The 200-day moving average is providing resistance to any rallies, and a significant shift in sentiment will likely be needed to sustain any move higher.

Oil has pushed lower following Trump’s threat of a levy on Russia—though some question whether this is merely a negotiation tactic over Ukraine. The broader outlook remains bearish, as crude oil supply is expected to rise, with some idled production under review for revival next month.

Key events this week:
Tuesday – RBA, Eurozone CPI, and a host of PMI data
Wednesday – More Eurozone PMI data, Liberation Day
Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

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