Welcome to June and the brief arrival of summer in the UK yesterday!
There is a lot of anticipation this week, as we are expecting the ECB to deliver a rate cut, 4.5% to 4.25%. Investors believe the cut has been telegraphed to the market and now the emphasis is on what President Christine Lagarde has to say about what comes next. Markets now expect two cuts and less than a 50% chance of a third - compared with three when the ECB last met, and at least five at the start of the year. What else have we got in store? Friday has the all-important non-farm payrolls, 185k is the consensus and in the commodity space OPEC is to decide on output cuts.
Domestically, the City of London is excited at the prospect that Shein, the Chinese fast fashion giant, is potentially listing on the London Stock Exchange, this would bolsters hopes that the UK can regain its standing among the global financial capitals after a series of disappointments.
On the data front today we have Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, UK S&P Global / CIPS Manufacturing PMI, US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing and the International Atomic Energy Agency board meets in Vienna.
Marketwise the yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.48%, West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $77 per barrel, Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,320.97 an ounce, Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $68,316.77, Ether rose 0.3% to $3,797.65, Cable opens at 1.2730 and USDJPY at 157.30. Perhaps this week the one to watch is EURUSD which opens at 1.0850.
