Welcome to March. Geopolitics dominates as European leaders assemble what Britain called a “coalition of the willing” to secure a peace deal for Ukraine, following an Oval Office clash between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Equity markets are green.
This week, the main data events influencing sentiment include the NFPs—will Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) impact the numbers?—and the ECB.
Regarding the NFPs, the January report revealed lower-than-expected job growth, but this was due to temporary factors such as the wildfires in California and cold weather. For February, with federal job cuts in play, we expect the NFP print to come in on the soft side.
In Europe, the ECB cut interest rates by 25bps at its last meeting but gave no clear signals about the future pace of easing. Currently, 88bps of additional reductions are priced in by the end of the year. On Wednesday, U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose 25% duties on European cars, reinforcing the need to stimulate domestic growth.
Market Overview:
- Bitcoin has rallied to $92,533.40, while Ether sits at $2,410.08.
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.23%, while Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.41%. The U.K. sits at 4.48%.
- Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,862.64 an ounce.
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $69.93 a barrel.
Key Data Releases Today:
- Eurozone CPI
- HCOB Manufacturing PMI
- UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
