The official working year starts today! We would like to welcome you back and wish you a Happy New Year.
What have you missed?
On the positives: Oil prices ended last week higher as the demand outlook was boosted by cold weather in Europe and the U.S. Brent posted a 3.3% weekly gain, while WTI posted a 5% increase.
On the negatives: Stocks faltered after a strong 2024. The S&P 500 closed out 2024 with a 23% rise and posted its biggest two-year gain since 1997–1998.
So, what lies ahead this week?
On Wednesday, we get the Fed Minutes. In the December meeting, the Fed delivered its third straight 25-basis point rate cut. The Chair, Jerome Powell, described it as a "closer call." Given Powell’s description of the meeting and the dissent from Cleveland’s Hammack, the minutes will be of interest.
Then, to round off the week, Friday brings the NFPs. The employment report is expected to show that the U.S. economy added 154k jobs in December.
Market-wise:
- Bitcoin rose 1% to $99,453.68.
- Ether rose 0.6% to $3,667.52.
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.62%.
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $73.67 a barrel on profit-taking.
- Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,631.11 an ounce.
As for today:
The main event will be in the U.S., where Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will speak at a conference on law and microeconomics at the University of Michigan. Her colleague, Tom Barkin, the Richmond Fed President, suggested on Friday his preference was to keep rates restrictive for longer.
Welcome back, and have a great 2025!
