Market Commentary: Monday 9th March

Crude on Monday surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, with the US–Israeli war against Iran showing no sign of easing.

Brent jumped as much as 29% to $119.50 a barrel, adding to last week’s 28% surge, as the Iran conflict entered a second week. Iran named the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader, while President Donald Trump said higher oil prices were a “very small price to pay” for safety and peace.

Trump is also weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium, as officials grow increasingly concerned the stockpile may have been moved, according to three diplomatic officials briefed on the matter.

Stocks were sharply lower on the day amid concerns that the surge in oil over the past week will accelerate inflation and sap global growth. The dollar strengthened and government bonds dropped.

Treasuries sold off on concerns over quickening inflation, with benchmark US 10-year yields turning higher for the year. Australia’s policy-sensitive three-year yield surged to its highest level since 2011, while German bund futures slumped to almost a 15-year low. Japanese bonds also fell, with yields on the 30-year and 40-year bonds rising about 11 basis points.

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