Market Commentary: Thursday 25th September

US equity futures edged higher in Asia after two down days on Wall Street, with contracts for the S&P 500 up 0.1%. Chinese tech led regional gains, boosted by semiconductor optimism and Alibaba’s AI investment drive, though MSCI’s Asia gauge was flat overall. Copper stayed near 15-month highs after supply disruptions, oil dipped following Tuesday’s spike, and the dollar slipped against G10 peers.

Focus is squarely on Friday’s US core PCE release, expected at 0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y, as traders weigh the Fed’s next move. Powell and other officials have kept a cautious tone this week, cooling the AI-led equity surge but leaving rate-cut expectations intact. Treasuries were steady, while gold traded close to record levels.

Elsewhere, attention is on European fiscal jitters after a weak UK gilt auction and emerging splits within the BoE on the pace of easing. Spain’s PM Sanchez confirmed plans to run in 2027, while Washington opened new trade probes into robotics and machinery imports, hinting at further tariff skirmishes.

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