USD/JPY & Intervention Watch:
The pair rallied to 159.83, moving within touching distance of the critical 160.00 threshold. Market participants remain alert, viewing this level as a potential trigger point for official Japanese currency intervention.
Geopolitics & Ceasefire Deal:
Risk sentiment fluctuated sharply. Early-session anxiety, driven by military clashes between the US and Iran, pushed US equities lower (Dow -0.87%, Nasdaq -0.84%). However, sentiment received a late-session boost after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a US-mediated conditional ceasefire. The deal requires Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon, offering a glimpse of regional de-escalation.
Crude Oil Volatility:
Brent crude reached $99 per barrel and ended the session at $97.51 per barrel as traders priced in threats to Middle East supply routes and the Strait of Hormuz. Prices began to ease later in the session as the market started factoring in the diplomatic breakthrough and a cooling risk premium.
Bonds & Fed Expectations:
US Treasury yields pushed higher, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.49%. A combination of strong labour market data and persistent energy-driven inflation expectations has led investors to question how much room the Federal Reserve actually has to ease monetary policy.
Gold:
Spot gold approached its 200-day moving average. This level serves as a major technical support line; a successful defence could spark a rebound, while a clear break below it may accelerate liquidation as safe-haven demand softens following the ceasefire.
Economic Calendar
Today:
- Swiss May CPI
- US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Key Markets
- S&P 500 Futures: -0.36%
- US 10-Year Yield: -1.38 bps (4.49%)
- Brent Crude: $97.51 per barrel
- Bitcoin: -0.73% ($64,440)
- Gold: +0.71% ($4,466.30)
