Stocks softened as renewed doubts over the US–Iran ceasefire pushed oil higher and weighed on risk sentiment. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.5% after Wall Street closed at record highs, while European futures pointed lower. Asian equities also slipped, with South Korea’s Kospi falling 2.3% after comments from a top policymaker about using taxes on AI profits to fund a citizen dividend unsettled one of this year’s strongest markets. Brent rose above $105 as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dragged on and President Trump cast doubt on the ceasefire.
A lot of focus will be on US inflation data this afternoon for clues as to whether energy-driven price pressure is feeding through and how that may affect the Fed’s path. Trump’s upcoming meeting with President Xi in Beijing will also be in focus, with trade and Iran expected to dominate discussions. Elsewhere, Scott Bessent met with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, and comments following the meeting referenced strong alignment between the US and Japan, suggesting recent suspected intervention may have received tacit approval from the US.
In the UK, there is growing pressure on Keir Starmer’s position. More than 70 MPs have now spoken out against his leadership following last week’s losses in the local elections. The attached Polymarket tracker points to an 84% chance that he is out by the end of the year and now suggests it is likely (64%) he is out by the end of June.
• S&P 500 futures −0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 futures −0.5%
• US 10-year yield +1 bp to 4.42%
• Bitcoin −0.7% to $81,226
• Gold −0.5% to $4,715
• WTI +1.4% to $99.43
