Market Summary
Oil Extends Rally as US-Iran Standoff Escalates: Oil prices climbed 7.13% yesterday to $83.20 and continued to rise in this morning's session to $84.51 as tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified, renewing concerns over global energy supply and inflation. Brent crude rose as much as 2.8% to $85.64 per barrel this morning after President Donald Trump reinstated a U.S. blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and announced a 20% reimbursement charge on other cargo using the waterway. The renewed geopolitical uncertainty has heightened fears of supply disruptions through one of the world's most important energy corridors.
Markets Brace for US Inflation Data as Rate Hike Expectations Build: Investor focus has shifted to today's U.S. Consumer Price Index report, with markets now pricing around a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated policymakers may need to tighten policy further if inflation remains persistent. Treasury yields held near recent highs, while the U.S. dollar steadied ahead of the inflation release. Markets are also looking ahead to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony and the start of U.S. earnings season for further guidance on the policy outlook.
Asian Markets Stabilise Despite Semiconductor Volatility: Asian equities traded modestly higher this morning following another volatile session for semiconductor stocks. South Korea's Kospi recovered 0.5% this morning following yesterday's sharp intraday loss of 9.22%. However, concerns remain over stretched AI valuations after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.8% overnight, highlighting growing investor caution despite continued optimism around long-term AI demand.
Gold Recovers While Bitcoin Edges Higher: Gold fell 2.5% before bouncing off the $3,985 per ounce level and ending yesterday at $4,000, but has since rebounded to $4,030 per ounce this morning as investors balanced safe-haven demand against higher interest rate expectations. Silver has also gained a modest 1% to $58.24.
Economic Calendar
- U.S. CPI
- U.S. Earnings Season Continues
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Congressional Testimony
- Argentina CPI
Key Market Moves Today
- S&P 500 Futures: -0.24% (7,545.0)
- U.S. 10-Year Yield: -0.40 bps (4.62%)
- Brent Crude: +1.45% ($84.51)
- Bitcoin: +0.62% ($62,536)
- Spot Gold: +0.32% ($4,015)
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