Market Commentary: Tuesday 15th July

After Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods, the EU responded with a finalized second list of countermeasures targeting US goods worth €72 billion ($84 billion), including Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon—if it decides to retaliate—as transatlantic trade tensions intensify.

In Asia, China’s industrial output grew 6.8% year-on-year in June, accelerating from May’s 5.8% pace and beating forecasts, even as US tariff risks mount. Indices advanced after Nvidia announced it would resume some chip sales to China.

China's GDP grew 5.2% in Q2, down from 5.4% in Q1. Meanwhile, property sales declined 3.5%, increasing pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus—despite the governor stating the real estate market is stabilizing.

The Japanese yen consolidated near multi-week lows against the USD as traders awaited US inflation figures. Expectations of the Bank of Japan maintaining low interest rates kept JPY bulls on the defensive.

The USD was little changed overnight.

Bitcoin, after hitting new all-time highs, fell 2.5% to about $117,200.

Oil declined for a second session after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Russia, with Brent trading lower.

In the day ahead: CAD and USD CPI figures are due, along with remarks from BoE Governor Bailey later this evening.