Market Commentary: Tuesday 17th September

The 25 or 50 debate continues ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting. The case for a 50bp cut was reignited by ex-Fed official William Dudley's comments to The Wall Street Journal. The OIS markets are now pricing in 38bps of cuts for the September FOMC, indicating a high degree of uncertainty and making it a very tight call. The dollar continues to weaken, highlighted by GBP/USD opening above 1.3200. My personal thoughts are that it will be a 25bp cut, with the series of 25bp rate cuts extended. The caveat in all this is the election and the deteriorating data.

Overnight, 'The Mega Techs' have been in the news, with Apple shares down 2%—pre-orders for the iPhone 16 and Max are 16% lower compared to the iPhone 15. Meanwhile, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has insisted that workers return to the office five days a week in the New Year to improve collective creative collaboration and productivity. It now seems government departments are the last bastions of this perk.

In other news, spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,579.30 an ounce, West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $70.63 a barrel, Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $58,716.74, and Ether rose 1.3% to $2,304.53. On the data front, we have the Germany ZEW survey at 10 am, and in the US, we have Industrial Production and Retail Sales.

**For professional investors only** Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this blog is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Some of this information may have been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of iSAM Securities or its directors or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this blog, and no responsibility or liability is accepted for any such information. As a result, any person acting on any information does so entirely at their own risk. iSAM Securities will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.