U.S. and European equity futures are mixed as investors weigh Trump’s push for a Ukraine–Russia summit against a steady macro backdrop. European futures rose 0.2% after leaders touted progress on peace talks, while U.S. contracts slipped 0.2% and Asia traded flat. China held near decade highs, but Japanese bonds weakened on poor auction demand. Oil fell 0.8% on speculation a ceasefire could unlock more Russian supply. Treasuries were steady after S&P affirmed the U.S. credit rating at AA+. Gold edged higher, crypto extended losses, and the dollar was unchanged.
Focus now shifts to Jackson Hole, with Powell expected to outline the Fed’s policy framework and hint at September’s meeting. Markets see ~80% odds of a 25 bps cut, with two cuts priced by year-end. Traders remain cautious, awaiting clarity before pushing equities to new highs. The Fed’s balance between inflation and labor-market weakness will dictate momentum.
Trump urged Putin to prepare a summit with Zelenskiy, raising prospects for dialogue but with little expectation of immediate breakthroughs. The prospect of talks has pressured oil lower and lifted sentiment, though consensus sees progress as slow. With today’s data calendar quiet, attention stays firmly on Jackson Hole later this week.
