Market Commentary: Tuesday 21st April

Global equities resumed their rally after a brief pause, driven by optimism that Iran may rejoin negotiations with the US, easing geopolitical tensions ahead of a ceasefire deadline.

The MSCI All Country World Index rose 0.2%, while Asian equities gained 0.8%, supported by renewed enthusiasm for AI-related stocks. Oil prices fell about 1% as expectations of diplomacy improved sentiment, and other assets such as Treasuries and the dollar remained largely stable.

Markets are increasingly focused on potential US–Iran talks in Pakistan and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains disrupted amid ongoing military tensions. Despite these risks, investors have largely priced in improving conditions, including lower oil prices and stronger growth prospects. Tech stocks, particularly in Asia, continue to lead gains amid the AI boom, while commodities such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin declined.

UK Claimant Count Change has just come out at 26.8k versus a 22.6k forecast. US Retail Sales are due later today, along with a speech from President Trump. Attention is also turning to US monetary policy, with Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh emphasising the importance of central bank independence in upcoming testimony.

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