Market Commentary: Tuesday 24th June

Oil prices fell after President Trump posted that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire on Truth Social, spurring optimism for a lasting pause in the conflict. Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that Israel had agreed to a truce, provided Iran did not launch further attacks. The developments came two days after the U.S. entered the conflict; Tehran opted for a largely symbolic retaliation by firing missiles at the Al Udeid base in Qatar, where ample warnings were given in advance and Qatar had shut its airspace.

Brent Crude fell almost 5% and is currently trading at $65.70 a barrel, back to the level prior to the escalation between Israel and Iran on June 12th. Across the haven assets, spot gold fell 1% to $3,326/oz, and USDJPY dropped 2% from yesterday’s peak, trading back at the 145 handle.

We have a series of central bank speakers today: BoE’s Bailey (9:00 a.m.), ECB’s Lagarde (2:00 p.m.), and Fed Chairman Powell, who will deliver the Semiannual Policy Testimony at 3:00 p.m. It is also the NATO Summit today and tomorrow.

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