Market Commentary: Tuesday 2nd September

Stocks traded cautiously with U.S. markets still closed, leaving Asian shares swinging between small gains and losses and European futures slightly lower. Gold surged past $3,500 to a fresh record as Fed cut bets intensified, while oil edged higher ahead of this week’s OPEC+ meeting. The dollar firmed for the first time in six sessions, and the Treasury curve steepened as cash trading resumed, with 10-year yields at 4.25%.

Markets face a pivotal few weeks, with Friday’s NFP, CPI on Sept. 11, and the Fed decision on Sept. 17 all in focus. September’s seasonality, tariff risks, and questions over Fed independence add to the challenge for equities after recent record highs.

In Japan, 10-year bonds rallied after a strong auction, while the yen weakened after BoJ comments offered little policy clarity. Political tensions lingered in Asia, with protests in Indonesia pressuring officials and India pledging tariff cuts after U.S. sanctions.

Data-wise, we have CPI numbers for the Eurozone out this morning, ahead of manufacturing data from the U.S. and Canada this afternoon.

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