The markets are treading water. The S&P 500 closed 0.1% higher and the Nikkei 0.02% higher. The activity warms up today in the equity world: Microsoft announces their earnings, and data-wise, there is Eurozone economic confidence, GDP, and consumer confidence, while in the US, there are the JOLTS job openings. But the real action is tomorrow...
First up, we have the BOJ decision; +6bp is priced into the curves. A hawkish rhetoric is required to continue this Yen rally. We have seen an 8% rally in Yen since the intervention process began, and 152 is looking like a base until the macro environment changes. Then there is the Fed. OIS is pricing -27bp and a total of -66bp for the whole of 2024. Amidst all this, we have Month End fixing, and Asian markets have performed poorly: the Nikkei -2.67%, Hang Seng -4.03%, and CSI -3.07%.
Domestically, Chancellor Reeves announced delays to infrastructure projects and agreed to pay Junior Doctors a backdated 22% pay rise. In other markets, Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $66,443.15, Ether fell 0.6% to $3,301.92, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $75.56 a barrel, and spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,389.25 an ounce. The yield on 10-year Treasuries sits at 4.18%, but for how long?
