Market Commentary: Tuesday 31st March

Global markets swung on reports that President Donald Trump may be willing to end the US military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

Equity-index futures rose in the US and Europe on optimism about a potential de-escalation, while oil prices reversed earlier gains as traders bet tensions could ease. However, Asian equities struggled, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index heading toward its worst month since 2008 and chip stocks declining sharply.

The volatility followed heightened tensions after Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil carrier, underscoring how sensitive markets remain to developments in the conflict. Despite recent optimism, roughly $14 trillion has been wiped off global equity markets this month.

Bond markets rallied, the dollar weakened, and gold and silver rose as investors balanced risk sentiment with ongoing concerns. Overall, markets appear driven more by short-term headlines than fundamental resolution, with many participants viewing recent moves as temporary volatility rather than a clear signal that the conflict is nearing an end.

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