Market Summary
Stocks Rise Ahead of Core PCE Data: Bonds steadied and stocks advanced ahead of this afternoon’s core PCE reading, which markets hope will provide further clarity on the Fed’s rate-tightening path. Any downside surprise could prompt an unwinding of the market’s hawkish positioning, which currently prices in a 45% probability of an October rate hike.
Oil Retreats as Middle Eastern Flows Recover: The dollar continued to strengthen and 30-year Treasury yields reached multi-year highs. Brent crude retreated to $102.60 a barrel following reports that Middle Eastern oil flows are approaching pre-war levels, despite continued risks to shipping. Attention remains on negotiations following mixed messages in recent sessions.
UK Growth Beats Expectations as Labour Conference Continues: Andy Burnham’s flagship speech at the Labour Party conference saw him draw battle lines ahead of the next general election. His commitments included sweeping reform of the UK’s social care system, funded by ending the pension triple lock, and a reset of UK-EU relations. The lack of near-term promises or any mention of the government’s fiscal rules prompted a muted reaction in gilt markets. However, GBP/USD rallied around 30 pips following this morning’s UK GDP release, with year-on-year growth of 1.4% exceeding the 1.2% consensus forecast.
Economic Calendar
- US Core PCE
- Further Fed Speakers
Key Market Moves Today
- S&P 500 Futures: +0.20% (7,745)
- Crude Oil: -0.20% ($89.25)
- Spot Gold: +0.32% ($4,195)
**For professional investors only** Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this blog is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Some of this information may have been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of iSAM Securities or its directors or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this blog, and no responsibility or liability is accepted for any such information. As a result, any person acting on any information does so entirely at their own risk. iSAM Securities will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
